melancholy wrote:Honestly, I think the next generation of game systems is going to change a focus from graphical update to hardware abilities. Instead of pouring resources into an even prettier visual experience, they will start to focus more on physic engines, more realistic AI, and basically all the CPU intensive things that we are starting to see now but not quite there yet.
I think the way to look at it is that software complexity is increasingly becoming the bottleneck in games. Having a GPU hand-crafted by God won't do you any good if you don't have the data to feed to it. Animation quality becomes more and more important as the level of detail increases. How many PC games are as detailed as Crysis? How many PS3 games are as detailed as Killzone 2? How many 360 games are as detailed as Gears of War 2? Aside from that, it's unlikely that many people will have a TV bigger than 1920x1200 for a long time, and you can only fit so much detail into that.
melancholy wrote:I also would not be surprised if the next generation of consoles required an internet connection. Not just for downloading of games like we have now, but anti-piracy disc verification and such.
If they want to move in the direction of requiring an Internet connection, I wouldn't be surprised if they try to do away with the idea of buying discs altogether and just move everything to a PSN/XBLA/WiiWare type of system with a huge hard drive. 1TB drives retail for under $100 right now, and the current gen is widely expected to last another 5 years or so. Broadband penetration and the prevalence of usage caps would probably stop them, though. The big upside for the game companies is that this kills the rental and used markets, which some of them pretty much consider to be on par with warez (remember, these are the kind of people who think DRM is a great idea).
melancholy wrote:Finally, I would imagine console makers are going to create development tools that are way easier to work with. I think Sony especially is realizing that a system is useless if nobody wants to work with the tools.
This goes hand-in-hand with the software complexity issue. It's not just a matter of Sony's or Microsoft's SDK, but that increasingly developers will be using a lot of middleware instead of trying to code everything for any console directly.
In all honesty, I don't know if I even really want another generation of "consoles" as we currently understand the business model. DRM has been getting more and more invasive and obnoxious, and it doesn't look like the love affair is going to end soon despite the fact that the whole idea of DRM is fundamentally flawed. I'm probably an outlier in this regard, but I'd much rather buy into an open standard based on something like OMAP4 than a PS4 or an Xbox 3. Hell, I'd even take a PC-based console at this point as long as it's not built around the idea of a closed, DRM-laden platform (or if the DRM is at least optional).
"You know, I have a great, wonderful, really original method of teaching antitrust law, and it kept 80 percent of the students awake. They learned things. It was fabulous." -- Justice Stephen Breyer